The Democratic lead on the Generic Ballot shrank slightly in the month of July.

If the election were held today, 44% of voters would vote for the Democrat from their District, and 43% would vote for the Republican. That single point advantage is down from 5 a month ago.

Meanwhile, including leaners (those who first say they are not sure, then pick a side), Democrats lead 47% to 45%. That 2 point advantage is down 2 points from a month ago.

The Iran War Impact

Republicans have not lead on the generic ballot since February of 2026, right before the war with Iran started. This is a stark contrast to the latter half of 2025; Republicans had the advantage every month but one from June to December last year. The month they did not lead the numbers were dead even.

A Deeper Dive

Among voters with a post graduate degree, Democrats lead by nearly 20 points. Among the rest of the nation, voters are evenly divided, 46% to 46% (including leaners).

However, Democrats continue to maintain a healthy lead in enthusiasm about voting.

Overall, 42% of voters say they are Very Enthusiastic about voting in the midterm elections. Voters who are Very Enthusiastic are more likely to actually show up and cast a ballot, particularly when feeling they are picking between the lesser of two evils.

Among voters who say they are Very Enthusiastic to vote, Democrats lead 53% to 45%. While voters who prefer a candidate who supports policies like President Trump's come close to matching Democrats' intensity, just 29% of Traditional GOP voters say they are Very Enthusiastic about voting.

If Republicans can't convince Traditional GOP voters to show up in vote, Democrats are projected to do very well in November.

This data is from a Napolitan News Service survey of 1,000 Registered Voters conducted online by Scott Rasmussen, July 13-14, 2026. RMG Research, Inc., conducted the field work for the survey. It has a margin of error of +/- 3.1.