written by Scott Rasmussen
Lost amidst the larger story of Donald Trump's victory last week is the news that the polls were very good this cycle. At the national level, the Real Clear Politics average showed the popular vote to be a pure tossup. When all the votes are counted, it appears that President Trump will have won the popular vote by a single percentage point. In other words, the RCP polling average came within one point of the national popular vote.
All the major polling averages were pretty good in 2024, but I'll focus my comments on RCP, since they were a bit closer to the mark. The RCP average was based upon 17 polls; 16 of them were within two points of the final result.
The swing state polling was generally accurate as well. In Georgia, the polling average was within a point of the final result. Nine of the 10 Georgia polls in the RCP average were within two points of the final result. In North Carolina, the average was within two points of the final result. Eight of the 11 Tarheel State polls were within a couple of points.
Similar results were found in other swing states. Perhaps the biggest "miss" was found in Arizona. Not all the votes are in yet, but it appears that the polling average there was likely off by about three points. Still, nine of the ten polls included in the average showed Trump ahead, and the tenth showed a tie. In other words, the Arizona polling pointed to a clear victory for the GOP.
Obviously, the polls weren't perfect. They never can be. And, yes, there were some spectacular misses. The Selzer poll in Iowa drew a lot of attention, and CNN projected Harris +6 in Wisconsin.
But the complete set of polling data was clear enough to see that the race would be close and that Trump was more likely to win than lose (a statement I made publicly before the election). Trump had the edge in the southern swing states, which meant that he just needed to win one of the tossup Blue Wall states. That made him the favorite.
Ultimately, of course, Trump won all seven swing states. Some he won by comfortable margins (Arizona) and some just barely (Wisconsin). That sweep was decisive enough to avoid any controversy, but it doesn't change the reality that the election was very close. In the three Blue Wall states, 17 million votes were cast. A swing of just 250,000 votes in those states would have made Kamala Harris president.
This was written as part of a weekly polling memo for Napolitan Institute Gold Circle Members. For more information on the Gold Circle Member program, please contact goldcircle@napolitaninstitute.org
