Written by Scott Rasmussen

Much has been written about the scope of Donald Trump's victory. It is significant that he won a popular vote victory, the first time a Republican has done so in 20 years. The past and future president also made historic gains among Black and Hispanic voters. And, of course, his victory was accompanied by the GOP winning control of the Senate and keeping control of the House. That's a strong showing.

However, it's important to avoid getting carried away by the hype. A realistic assessment of the results shows that it was not a landslide. While Trump won the popular vote, it was by the narrowest of margins (approximately one percentage point). Since 1888, only three winning candidates have had a smaller popular vote victory (1960, 2000, and 2016).

Additionally, it looks like he will fall short of winning a majority of voters (current estimates show him winning about 49.8%). In other words, despite the president's strong showing, a majority of voters cast their ballots for someone else.

None of this is meant to diminish the significance of the incoming president's victory. Four years ago, I described "President-elect Biden as a 21st century mash-up of Gerald Ford and Jimmy Carter" and predicted he would be little more than a transition president. As we know now, "The Ford and Carter administrations paved the way for Ronald Reagan to become the most influential president since Franklin Roosevelt in the 1930s."

Donald Trump now has the opportunity to become the most influential president since Ronald Reagan. If over the next four years he and the Republican Congress can achieve the three main priorities established by the American people, he will have presided over a fundamental political realignment and paved the way for ongoing GOP success.

However, Trump's lasting influence and the potential realignment are far from assured. They depend entirely upon whether or not the incoming administration can do what voters are hoping for: making the economy work, securing the border, and returning to common sense about gender identity. If they fail, voters will move on, and the Trump era will be just a blip in the nation's history.

This was written as part of a weekly polling memo for Napolitan Institute Gold Circle Members. For more information on the Gold Circle Member program, please contact goldcircle@napolitaninstitute.org