In the first Napolitan News Generic Ballot survey for the 2026 midterms, Republicans start with a seven-point advantage. Fifty-one percent (51%) of voters say they would vote for the Republican from their district while 44% prefer the Democrat (the totals include leaners).

Men prefer the GOP by a massive 24 points (59% to 35%) while women favor the Democrats by eight (51% to 43%).

Among Main Street Americans, Republicans have an 11-point advantage (52% to 41%). However, Elite and Elite Adjacent voters are more evenly divided. Forty-seven percent (47%) prefer the Democrat from their district and 45% prefer the Republican.

Typically, enthusiasm for a winning political party peaks when the new president is inaugurated and begins to decline shortly thereafter as the reality of governing takes hold.

For all ballot surveys, Napolitan News surveys ask an initial question to determine the candidate preference for each voter. Then, a follow-up question is asked of uncommitted voters to see which candidate they are leaning towards. The results are then reported "with leaners."

On the initial ask for this survey - the number without leaners- the results-Republicans had a six-point advantage, 48% to 42%.

This Napolitan News Service survey of 1,000 Registered Voters was conducted online by Scott Rasmussen January 15-16, 2025. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. and has a margin of error of +/- 3.1.