The latest Napolitan News survey finds that, among Likely Voters, Democrats lead the Generic Ballot 54% to 43%. Likely Voters are defined as those who say they will Definitely Vote or are Very Likely to vote.

That D+11 advantage is up from D+6 last month.

Without leaners, among Likely Voters Democrats still lead by 11, 52% to 41%.

The Iran War Impact

The last Republican advantage on the Generic Ballot was February of 2026, before the beginning of the Iran war. This is a stark contrast to the latter half of 2025; Republicans led on the generic ballot from June through December of last year, with the single exception of August, when the numbers were even.

The war has also played a large roll in increasing economic pessimism to new levels. The latest personal finance numbers are more pessemistic than when Biden left office.

National Totals

The results don't look much better looking at national totals. Without leaners, Democrats lead by 8 - 48% to 40%. Including leaners, the difference is identical, 51% to 43%.

Systemic Error

In the political bubble, many are saying that current polling is heavily underrepresenting Republicans. Check out Scott's Mini-Scoreboard to see three scenerios: conventional wisdom, and systematic error on either side.

This data is from a Napolitan News Service survey of 2,000 Registered Voters conducted online by Scott Rasmussen, October 13-14, 2026. RMG Research, Inc., conducted the field work for the survey. It has a margin of error of +/- 2.2.