The latest Napolitan News survey finds that, among Likely Voters, Democrats lead the Generic Ballot 52% to 46%. Likely Voters are defined as those who say they will Definitely Vote or are Very Likely to vote. These are the first true Likely Voter numbers from Napolitan this year; previous Generic Ballot polls tracked Voter Enthusiasm, where Democrats have held comfortable leads for some time.

Among Likely voters, without leaners Democrats lead by 5, 49% to 44%.

The Iran War Impact

Democrats have now led the generic ballot for 6 straight months, with the last Republican advantage coming in February of 2026, before the beginning of the Iran war. This is a stark contrast to the latter half of 2025; Republicans led on the generic ballot from June through December of last year, with the single exception of August, when the numbers were even.

Over the 6 months Democrats have lead, the average lead (including leaners) has been 5 points, placing it nearly identical to the Likely Voter totals.

National Totals

The results don't get any better for the GOP looking at national totals. Without leaners, Democrats lead by 7 - 48% to 41%. Including leaners, Democrats gain a a point and lead, 51% to 43%.

This data is from a Napolitan News Service survey of 2,000 Registered Voters conducted online by Scott Rasmussen, 8-15, 2026. RMG Research, Inc., conducted the field work for the survey. It has a margin of error of +/- 2.2.