In the month of August, 45% of voters say that, if the election were held today, they would vote for the Democrat from their district, and 42% say the Republican.

That is a mild improvement for Democrats from July, when it was 44% to 43%, but down from a 5-point edge in June.

However, including leaners (those who first say they are not sure, then pick a side), 47% say they would vote for the Democrat from their district, and 45% say they would vote for the Republican. That is identical to last month.

The Iran War Impact

Democrats have now led the generic ballot for 5 straight months, with the last Republican advantage coming in February of 2026, before the beginning of the Iran war. This is a stark contrast to the latter half of 2025; Republicans led on the generic ballot from June through December of last year, with the single exception of August, when the numbers were even.

A Deeper Dive

Despite close toplines, the Democrats are clearly more enthusiastic about voting, which is a big advantage for the midterms. Among those Very Enthusiastic about voting (a good early approximation for Likely Voters), Democrats hold a double-digit advantage of 10 points, up 2 from July.

Among voters who are at least Somewhat Enthusiastic about voting, Democrats hold a healthy 6-point edge directly in line with the average of all 2026 results.

Overall, 43% of voters say they are Very Enthusiastic about voting. Three in 4 (74%) are at least Somewhat Enthusiastic

If Republicans can't convince Traditional GOP voters to show up and vote, Democrats are projected to do very well in November.

This data is from a Napolitan News Service survey of 2,000 Registered Voters conducted online by Scott Rasmussen, July 28- August 4, 2026. RMG Research, Inc., conducted the field work for the survey. It has a margin of error of +/- 2.2.