Only 31% Say the U.S. Is in a Recession

Publication Date: 10/26/2025 5:00 AM CST

Only 31% Say the U.S. Is in a Recession

Publication: 10/26/2025 5:00 AM CST

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Thirty-one percent (31%) of registered voters say the country is currently in a recession.
- That is down 5 points from 2 weeks ago, and down 6 points from a month ago.
- Forty-one percent (41%) of Democrats say the U.S. is in a recession, while 30% disagree.
- Republicans are more optimistic, with only 23% saying the country is in a recession and 59% disagreeing.
Of those voters who say the U.S. is in a recession, 27% believe it will end over the next six months.
- That's down 2 points from the 29% who said the same two weeks ago.
- Fifty-seven percent (57%) say the recession will not end within the next six months.
- Among Democrats, 69% also say the recession will not end so soon. But 43% of Republicans say it will end within six months.
Of voters who say the U.S. is not in a recession, 25% believe it will enter a recession over the next six months.
- That is up 2 points from 2 weeks and a month ago when 23% said the U.S. will enter a recession.
- Most of these voters (56%) say a recession will not begin over the next 6 months.
- Republicans in this group are more optimistic, with saying the U.S. will not enter a recession within 6 months by a 66% to 16% margin.
- Of the Democrats who say the U.S. is not currently in a recession, 43% say the U.S. will enter one in the next 6 months, while 34% say we will not.

This data is from a Napolitan News Service survey of 1,000 Registered Voters conducted online by Scott Rasmussen, October 20-21, 2025. RMG Research, Inc., conducted the field work for the survey. It has a margin of error of +/- 3.1.