36% Say the U.S. Is in a Recession

Publication Date: 10/11/2025 5:00 AM CST

36% Say the U.S. Is in a Recession

Publication: 10/11/2025 5:00 AM CST

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Thirty-six percent (36%) of registered voters say the country is currently in a recession.
- That is little changed from recent months.
- Forty-four percent (48%) of Democrats say the U.S. is in a recession.
- Republicans are more optimistic, with only 30% saying the country is in a recession.
Of those voters who say the U.S. is in a recession, 29% believe it will end over the next six months.
- That's up 6 points from the 23% who said the same in late August.
- Fifty-nine percent (59%) say the recession will not end within the next six months.
- Among Democrats, 67% also say the recession will not end so soon. But 44% of Republicans say it will end.
Of voters who say the U.S. is not in a recession, 23% believe it will enter a recession over the next six months.
- That is unchanged from 2 weeks ago, but up 2 points from a month ago.
- Most (57%) say a recession will not begin over the next 6 months.
- Republicans are more optimistic, with 68% saying the U.S. will not enter a recession, but 53% of Democrats say it will.

The most recent data cited is from a Napolitan News Service survey of 1,000 Registered Voters conducted online by Scott Rasmussen, October 6-7, 2025. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. and has a margin of error of +/- 3.1.