In the full month of July, 45% considered themselves Democrats or Leaned Democrat, and 43% considered themselves Republican or Leaned Republican. Democrats picked up a point from June, and have now led for 7 straight months.

The Impact of Leaners

In the current political environment, neither party can muster a majority of voters who believe they support America's founding ideals. However, among Independent voters, most report leaning towards one party or the other. The Democratic lead depends on these "leaners," aided by an unpopular war in Iran and a polarizing president.

Removing these leaners, the Republicans maintain a 1 point advantage, 36% to 35%. That is identical to June.

Similar to the case of the Generic Ballot, close toplines will mean nothing in the midterms if the Republicans cannot motivate traditional GOP voters to get to the polls.

A New Trend Continues

The Democratic edge throughout 2026 stands in stark contrast to 2025, when Republicans led every month except April, the same month President Trump announced his tariffs.

Survey Methodology

This Napolitan News survey is based upon interviews of 5,157 registered voters. A description of the dynamic party weighting results used to obtain these results is available here.

This data is from a Napolitan News Service survey of 5,157 Registered Voters conducted online by Scott Rasmussen for the full month of July, 2026. RMG Research, Inc., conducted the field work for the survey. It has a margin of error of +/- 1.4%.