Just 30% of voters say they prefer a candidate who will support the Trump Administration's agenda in the upcoming midterms. Nearly 6-in-10 voters (57%) say they prefer a candidate who will be a check on that agenda.
Even more concerning for the current administration, 30% of Republicans prefer a candidate who will oppose its agenda, and 11% are undecided.
There is a massive divide on the right. Our 4-Way Choice question is designed to measure both wings of each major party, and assumes all candidates have equal skills and temperament. The right consists of two groups: voters who prefer policies like President Trump's, and Traditional GOP voters.
A plurality (44%) of voters who prefer a Traditional GOP candidate say they prefer a candidate who opposes President Trump's agenda. Just 40% say they prefer a candidate who supports it.
But that may not be the biggest problem for Republicans. One-in-4 voters (24%) who prefer policies like those President Trump's say they prefer a candidate who will be a check on the Trump Administration's agenda in this midterm cycle.
More Context
RMG Research and Napolitan News have asked our 4-Way Choice question on nearly every survey since 2020. In the most recent
monthly analysis, the amount of voters who say preferred Trump-policies had fallen to 27%, an all-time low. That number was 37% when he was elected, and 38% when he took office.
If Trump voters were looking for a silver lining, it was this: in every survey conducted over nearly 6 years, a plurality always said they preferred policies like those of the current president. But all that changed this week. For the first time, a plurality (26%) preferred the policies of a Traditional Democrat, while just 24% said they preferred policies like President Trump's.
Summary
No matter how you slice it, the number of voters who say they support policies like the Trump Administration's is falling. And, with one quarter of those voters now saying they prefer a candidate who will be a check on the current administration's agenda, Democrats everywhere should be rejoicing.
For a deeper look at midterm scenerios, see Scott's Scoreboard.
This data is from a Napolitan News Service survey of 2,000 Registered Voters conducted online by Scott Rasmussen, October 5-13, 2026. RMG Research, Inc., conducted the field work for the survey. It has a margin of error of +/- 3.1.
